[2021] The Road to the #1 Pick

[SageBow]

The Road to the #1 Pick

 

The 2021 Draft Lottery is over, and the Washington Wizards are the big winner. They are set to select No. 1 overall on July 24th.

 

There were 2 other big winners for the lottery though, as this draft class has been led by a triumvirate of talented players at the top. Tulane’s PF Roger Stewart, Tennessee’s SF Raymond Rivera, and South Dakota State’s SG Benjamin Morris are the betting favorites expected to go in the top 3 picks. However, everyone has drastically different views across the board on how the top 3 all rank, and even some include SMU’s PF Jose Foster and Saint Mary’s PG Francis Doyle into their top 3 rankings. It’s a bit of chaos as mocks have no consistency in the top 5 picks.

 

To get some clarity, SageBow Inc. interviewed Sage, general manager of the Memphis Grizzlies, Migi, general manager of the Brooklyn Nets and, Kgreene829, general manager of the Miami Heat, to see their thoughts on the top players of the 2021 class. The below go in order based on Vegas’s current #1 pick odds for the top 5 guys.

 

PF Roger Stewart - #1 Pick Odds -1000

 

 

Through the predraft process, Roger Stewart has really powered his way to becoming the current betting favorite for the Wizards. Honestly, it feels like it makes a ton of sense. The Wizards have an elite playmaker in PG Christopher Clark and a secondary ball handler and knockdown perimeter shooter in SF Todd Jackson. Adding Stewart would give a force in the post, creating an instant Big-3 that would make the Wizards one of the top teams in the East.

 

Sage - I love the guy. He was outstanding all season long for Tulane and he absolutely brings the dynamic that the Wizards need to give their team a post fulcrum. The thing that sets him apart from the rest of the top contenders is just how good he is at scoring down low. He’s a nasty player that loves to defend and rim run. If he can develop a jumper he’ll be truly elite, but right now he’s already one of the top posts in the league. Feels like a no-brainer to me.

 

Migi - Honestly, Stewart 100% flew under the radar the entire season. His surge to be the number one prospect definitely happened during this pre-draft process in the offseason. Stewart is already an instant fit on a Wizards team that has elite talent at the Point Guard and Small Forward position. Drafting Stewart also gives the Wizards flexibility with what they want to do with their offense, allowing them to have him play small-ball 5 or even go jumbo with their size. His size provides great rim protection, and is a great rebounder, and savvy passer, so the Wizards would get a multi-dimensional player. The only issue is his lack of a jumpshot. If he can’t work in the post, how else can he possibly score? Regardless, I still think he should go number one.

 

Kgreene829 - I know that recently everyone is looking for someone to have a hot take in sports media so if you want one of those don’t look at what I think of Roger Stewart. I believe that Stewart is going to be the 1st pick in a very talented draft class. Roger Stewart was able to put up great numbers in college and will be an impact player on any team. I feel like another big factor in this decision is how he fits the team. While the Wizards already have good forwards with a superstar SF in Todd Jackson and a good PF in Ryan Washington I feel like Roger Stewart could be a good pick and play center if the Wizards decide to go small ball. Even though Stewart is not the best shooter the Wizards have enough great shooters that it should not be a problem. I see Stewart being a great player for Washington by bringing finishing and defense which are both aspects of the game that the Wizards have room to improve in. In my opinion this pick is pretty much a lock but I will get into why it is not 100% locked in soon.

PF Jose Foster - #1 Pick Odds +300

 

 

Jose Foster had a ridiculous season at SMU, winning the Wooden Award as the best player in the nation. He led the nation in rebounds and field goal percentage, and was top 5 in scoring. But does his bully-ball post play work at the next level? Foster struggled at the combine, perhaps consequences for a long, stamina exhausting season, but he also fits the need at the 4 for the Wizards, despite having a very different style of play than Stewart.

 

Sage - Foster is a great player, one of my favorite scouting watches of the past season. This guy hunts the ball defensively. Incredible lower body strength to box out opponents. Really really good shooting stroke, a guy that got to the charity stripe a ton just with the physicality he plays with on offense. Should be a better 3 point shooter than his numbers show, but a lot of those shots were late in the clock trying to bail out his team. Foster’s got great off ball movement and is a pure scorer down low, but he measured only at 6-5. He’s going to have to rework his offensive game at the next level, but for a team with slashers in the backcourt, having a guy like Foster as a Stretch 4 on offense and a dog on defense is a very intriguing prospect.

 

Migi - Honestly, if the Wizards genuinely wanted to go somewhere else for number 1, it better be Jose Foster. Again another fit for the Wizards at the PF position. He’s a much better shooter than Stewart and can finish well inside. Just like Stewart, he can be a small-ball five. The issue here is that his ball-handling and passing aren’t NBA level yet, and his defense is mediocre. His lack of size makes him a liability in the paint in regards to defense, but somehow he’s a phenomenal rebounder. So, if the Wizards want to maximize him on the defensive end, they should try and have him guard wings and guards instead of bigs down low. After having to carry SMU, I feel like he might carry that tunnel vision into his early years in the NBA to compensate for the lack of passing. If Foster is taken first, the Wizards would be going all-in on winning through their offense and not their defense.

 

Kgreene829 - I will admit I have been a bit hard on Jose Foster. Foster is a great player that will make any team he joins better. I saw his size and had trouble seeing anything else. After I have had some time away from doing scouting reports, which will be coming back I just got a bit busy, I have come to appreciate his game in a new way. Although I still have some concerns about his size I see that he will be a great fit to many teams. If the Wizards draft Foster they will be getting a cold blooded sniper that can still finish inside. Despite his size I think he will still be able to get rebounds at a high level which is one thing Washington needs from their forwards. Even though I don’t think that Foster will go number one I believe he is a great player who could have easily gone number 1 in other draft classes and will be a great player in the NBA on whichever team however he chooses to develop his game.

 

SG Benjamin Morris - #1 Pick Odds +450

 

 

Benjamin Morris didn’t get a ton of recognition during the season, but the Jackrabbits standout exploded at the combine. He was the alpha dog at the 5 on 5 scrimmages, showing great bursts of speed to cut through opponents with ease. There are many concerns about his game and the statbook isn’t loaded, so is Morris going to be the first great combine warrior flop, or is he the real deal?

 

Sage - Benjamin Morris appeared out of nowhere and all of a sudden, Vegas has him as the #3 most likely player to go #1. Crazy what the combine can do for a guy. Wasn’t dominant on the court for the Jackrabbits, but it looks like everyone’s drooling over what he could be. Starting with the good, he’s got rare speed and agility. So many times through this past season, his ability to slash to the hoop bailed his teammates out of bad offensive stretches. He’s also a guy that just has the “it” factor. Big time chirper on the court, one of the most mentally tough guys around. But right now he’s too much of a situational guy. Not a great ballhandler, coaches need to improve his jumper mechanics. He just doesn’t have the impact right now that the guys around him will have. The only way I see the Wizards giving him the #1 overall is if they think he’s got a higher ceiling than Roger Stewart.

 

Migi - Bucking the trend on this one, and don’t get me wrong, Benjamin Morris is a great player. But #1? I’d pass on that. The obvious point is that the Wizards already have a great, young shooting guard in Trevor Harmon, and probably would have to come off the bench because the Wizards are set at the PG and SF positions. Morris’s finishing ability is great and his defense and rebounding is top notch. However, his shooting and ballhandling isn’t great, are pretty mediocre, and for guards, that is probably the most important skills to be good at. His 78.8% free throw percentage should be a good sign that his jumper can improve, especially since shooting 34.5% from 3 isn’t a good thing. I think Morris is a top five pick, but not number one. He is very high potential though, so he would be a good upside pick.

 

Kgreene829 - Benjamin Morris is a great player who I have as my number 3 in the class. Morris is not the lights out shooter that some of the best guards in the NBA are but he can finish at a high level. This is not too much of a problem because we are seeing a resurgence of guards that are not great 3 point shooters kind of like Donovan Mitchell. I think that Morris has the highest upside out of everyone in the draft and that is why I can see the Wizards taking Morris with the first pick. Although Washington has 2 great PGs and they could probably shift one over to SG I think that Morris will be a good pick because you have the option to trade Shawn Taylor or you could use it as a way to not force Morris into the starting spot on opening day which could help him develop more in the long run. Morris is a great defender who paired up with PG Christopher Clark could form the best defensive backcourt in the league. I think that Morris has a chance to go number one and could even end up being the best player to come out of this class if he is able to live up to his potential.

 

SF Raymond Rivera - #1 Pick Odds +1000

 

 

Another guy that has absolutely rocketed up the boards, Raymond Rivera captained a very good Tennessee team to the Sweet-16 and an All-American Award. What hurts him in the race for #1 is the fact that Todd Jackson is a mainstay of the Wizard’s team already. Rivera’s not the biggest guy (6-5), so transitioning further down to the post to be a Stretch 4 like he did in college would likely be punished at the next level. However, the raw skills are all there for a long, all-star career.

 

Sage - Really really good player. Lots of tools that make him one of the more complete guy in the game. What jumps out at me is the shooting, just beautiful mechanics. Knockdown from 3 point land, hit at 47.7% which is absurd. At worse, Rivera is an elite 3 and D guy for his career. At best, he develops some more ball handling and mixes his game up from being a shooter to a guy that can slash in the post and we’ve got a real monster on our hands. The crazy thing is, the Lakers at #2 and the Timberwolves at #3 already have long term guys at SF. While I think Rivera is the #2 player in the class, Indiana will be laughing to the bank if he’s sitting there at #4 overall.

 

Migi - I doubt Rivera goes #1, especially since Stewart and Foster are better prospects. However, He would be perfect for the Lakers and Timberwolves, if they plan to go small. The Pacers at four would also be ecstatic to get him. Rivera is a great SF, and SF is a hard position to come by. Rivera is a deadeye shooter and an elite defender. He can already start out as a 3-and-D player. However, I think his all-around game should propel him to a potential superstar. We’ve seen him drop 30 point performances casually, and led the country in scoring with 18.4 ppg. Rivera also ranking in the top 15 in rebounds and assists is a great look as well. My only concern is that Rivera isn’t a great finisher at the rim, which is odd for a great scorer like him. Coaches will need to work with him if he’s going to not be allergic to get into the paint and finish strong.

 

Kgreene829 - I really like Raymond Rivera and think that he is the best player in this draft. The Washington Wizards already have their guy at SF with Todd Jackson which makes this an unlikely pick but if I was in this position then it would still be hard to pass on Rivera but I believe it is the right choice to make. No matter how you slice it, picking Rivera would not be a good choice because both Rivera and Jackson are 6-5 making it near impossible to play either of them at PF. Rivera is a great shooter that has trouble finishing but is a great pick for anyone trying to space the floor. Personally I would love to get Rivera and would happily sell my soul to the devil to even have a chance at drafting him because down in South Beach we are going to be starting 2 centers so a SF who can shoot would not just fill a hole but also open up the paint for both of our big men. Rivera is also a great defender who can also pull down a fair amount of rebounds if you need him to. Like I said I think it would be a bad decision to draft him with the 1st pick but no matter where he is drafted it is an absolute steal.

 

PG Francis Doyle - #1 Pick Odds +1500

 

 

Francis Doyle is the top ballhandling guard in this class, and in a league that lives and dies by the point guard, the national champion is in contention for going #1 overall. Doyle led the nation in assists, and was a top 5 scorer. Incredible offensive player that cooks with a sweet shooting stroke and elite ball handling, Doyle’s big weakness is a lackadaisical defensive mentality.

 

Sage - Love love love Francis Doyle. Just a supremely gifted offensive player. Elite shooter at all ranges, not shy of contact and a guy that can get to the stripe often. Surprisingly good rebounder for his height, and just the pace he plays with is relentless. He’s a guy that wants the ball in his hands and wants to dictate play, and can do so at an elite level. But he’s completely exposed defensively. Does his offense cover up his defensive liability? That will be a huge area of concern for GMs around the league to look at if they want to build around Doyle.

 

Migi - I love Francis Doyle. Doyle led Saint Mary’s to a national championship and put the team on his back at certain points of the season. A phenomenal leader. An elite scoring and elite ballhandler and facilitator. He can play off-ball as well. However, you can see Doyle at his best playing a fast-pace offense with the ball in his hands to make things happen. The only issue here with Doyle is that he is an absolute liability on defense. He plays with effort, but is going to require a good amount of help defense. Surprisingly though, he is a great rebounder, averaging 7 rebounds a game and the 2nd leading rebounder on the championship Gaels squad. I don’t think Doyle will go number one due to the Wizards having an elite point guard, but I think he’s a bonafide top 10 pick, and could be top 5 depending on how teams will evaluate their needs to add another guard. One thing is for certain, whoever gets Doyle won’t regret taking a special player like him in what’s shaping up to be a guard driven league.

 

Kgreene829 - I really am a big fan of Francis Doyle, offensively he can make some of the best defenders in the league look silly and could be the leader of a team that needs more scoring. Defensively you might have better luck putting a monkey out there. Doyle just can’t play defense and I think his draft stock will fall because of it. I think he is a great player but there is no way I am drafting him with the 1st pick in the draft. The Wizards already have 2 good PGs and have a big hole to fill at center. Now I may be a new GM but I don’t think you fill a hole by drafting the exact opposite of the position you need but that might just be me. I love Doyle as a player and I would love to have him on my team but I just don’t think he has what it takes to be a top 3 pick. I am rooting for Doyle but personally I see him going to the Portland Trailblazers with the 21st pick. I am not saying he is a bad player, it's just that his defense makes his stock fall and a lot of teams have players that they can play at guard that just seem like better options, however I understand someone who has 2 good shooting guards deciding to take Doyle but in my mind they would just slide one over to play point guard.

[cricket]

Honestly, if Washington doesn't want Roger Stewart, they should let me know and I will gladly take him. I think he's the clear #1.

[Bingo415]

Good interview, breaking down the top candidates for Top Pick. Seems like a no-brainer for Stewart to the Wiz, but weird things can happen...