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Introduction

This document will explain how to use and play Wahoo’s basketball simulation. The simulation was created as a fun, personal project; please do not expect it to have every aspect of real life basketball. Some things are changed or left out because of their complexity to add or for balancing the simulation. That being said, I am always open to hearing suggestions of how to improve the experience!

 

The Simulation Engine

The simulation engine is created in Excel, but is also being ported into python for the future. The main functions of the simulation are based on random number generators to create events and outcomes. Events could be a steal, an “other” turnover (lost ball/out of bounds, shot clock violation, or offensive foul), a 3 point attempt, a 2 point jumper attempt, or a 2 point paint attempt (dunks, layups, and tips). Outcomes include if the shot is made, missed, or blocked, if the shooter was fouled, if the basket was assisted, and the results of any rebound opportunities. The events and outcomes are based off of real-life percentages from NCAA and NBA basketball games. These average probabilities are adjusted based on individual player skills and coaching decisions, which will be discussed below.

 

Here is an example of final game results:

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The Players and Their Attributes

Let’s look at a player from this previous game. We can see Fritz Chan’s player line in the box score, but we do not see all of his attribute values. There are 5 attribute values for each player; all coaches will be able to see these values on any team's roster. Attribute values range from 1-20. A player’s overall rating is the sum of their 5 attributes. This means a player’s max overall rating could be 100. A 10 in any category is an average score and corresponds to the average statistic from real life (ie, a player with a 10 in shooting will be average at 3 point shots/2 point jumpers/free throws). A player on a roster will be viewable in the following format:

 

Player LineShootingFinishingBallworkReboundingDefenseOverallPotentialStaminaPlaytime Expectations
G Fritz Chan 6-4 Fr [Virginia****]101017111058B-2712

 

Player Line: This gives general information about a player. First is the player’s position (G, F, or C). This currently does not have an impact in-game besides for initial attribute generation, but it could play a role in the future. Next, you see the player’s name, height, and year. If a year is surrounded by parentheses, that player has taken a redshirt year. If Fritz’s coach redshirts him this year, he will appear as a (Fr) next year. Finally, you see the player’s recruiting information. Fritz was originally from Virginia and was a 4 star recruit.

Shooting: Shooting shows a player’s skill at 3 point shots, 2 point jumpers, and free throws.

Finishing: Finishing shows a player’s skill at 2 point paint shots (dunks, layups, and tip shots).

Ballwork: Ballwork relates to a player’s dribbling and passing skills. A high ballwork value will make a team give up less steals and have less “other” turnovers. Ballwork is calculated as a team statistic (calculated as the product of ballwork skill times the minutes a player is in the game, then summed for all players) and is compared to the opponent’s defense rating to influence steal and turnover percentages.

Rebounding: Rebounding shows a player’s rebounding skills. Rebounding will be calculated as a team value; if your team has a higher rebounding value (calculated as the product of rebounding skill times the minutes a player is in the game, then summed for all players), you will have a higher offensive rebounding chance and lower your opponent’s offensive rebounding chances.

Defense: Defense impacts your team’s chances to get a steal, force an “other turnover,” or block a shot. For Steals and Other Turnovers, your team defense value is compared to the opponent’s ballwork value. The chance of securing a block is determined directly by your team defense rating. An above average defense will increase chances of blocking shots, while a below average defense will decrease chances.

Overall: The overall rating is the sum of a player’s 5 attributes. An average player has an overall rating of 45. The maximum rating a player can be generated with is a 70, while the minimum is a 20 (unless the player is generated to be a Walk-On). See the Recruiting section for more details on overall ratings.

Potential: Each player has a numerical potential value that influences how quickly they progress and grow their skills from season to season. Potential values range from 65-100. The coach will only be able to see a letter grade of the potential. Potential grades are determined as follows:

 

Potential ValueGrade
98-100A+
93-97A
90-92A-
88-89B+
83-87B
80-82B-
78-79C+
73-77C
70-72C-
68-69D+
65-67D

 

Stamina: Stamina signifies the maximum amount of minutes a player can play in a game. Stamina is initially generated as a random number between 25 and 38. In each year of progressions, stamina will increase by a random number between 1 and 5. Stamina is maxed at 40 minutes per game.

Playtime Expectations: Playtime expectations represent the number of minutes a player expects to play in each game. At the end of the season, a player’s actual minutes will be added up and compared to their playtime expectations. If a player played less minutes than their expectations, there is a chance they will enter the transfer portal. Higher-rated recruits will have higher initial playtime expectations. Playtime expectations also grow season-by-season.

 

Coaching and Gameplans

Coaches have a few decisions to make prior to each game. They submit their decisions on the gameplan sheet, seen below. Gameplans are currently submitted through Google docs. A coach can make changes to all of the yellow boxes. Make sure to check if there are any warnings before finishing your gameplan; gameplans with errors will not be accepted and that game will be postponed or forfeited.

 

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Pace: How fast or slow you want your team to play. It is submitted in terms of possessions per game. The pace must be between 60 and 85. The average pace of an NCAA team is around 70 possessions per game. 60 is extremely slow, while 85 is extremely fast.

Shot Proportions: This affects how often your team will attempt the different types of shots. Each proportion must be between 20 and 60, and all proportions must add to 100.

Minutes: This determines the playing time for each player. No player can play more minutes than his stamina allows. You have 200 minutes to distribute (5 players on the court * 40 minutes each). Keep in mind the playtime expectations of each player as you are making your decisions.

 

Depending on the amount of teams in the season, there will be about 20 regular season games spread over 10 weeks. Each week will contain 2 games (played on Wednesday and Saturday). Coaches will submit gameplans for both games on the Sunday prior to the week of the games. If gameplans are not updated, the games will continue using a coach’s old gameplan. Conference tournaments and postseason tournaments will occur after the regular season.

 

Recruiting

Player Generation

Players are generated before each season to coincide with recruiting that occurs during the season. Player attributes are randomized within a range depending on their position. This corresponds to certain positions being better skilled at certain things. For example, Centers will generally be the best rebounders on the team, but the worst jump shooters. The skill ranges are as follows:

 

PositionShootingFinishingBallworkReboundingDefense
G7-174-147-171-111-11
F4-144-144-144-144-14
C1-116-161-116-166-16

 

If a player at any position rolls the average for each category, they will be rated a 45 overall, making 45 the anchor for an average player. The maximum any player can be generated is a 70 overall. The minimum a generated player can be is a 20 overall. However, Walk-Ons are generated with a different set of values and therefore can have a lower minimum overall. Stamina is randomized between a value of 25-38 for all players, regardless of position or overall rating. During recruiting, the actual attribute values are not visible to coaches; instead, they will see a letter grade for each category. For the 5 attributes, the coach will only see a direct letter grade (A, B, C, or D). There will be no pluses or minuses in the grades. Coaches will see a letter grade with pluses or minuses for the potential value. Attribute grades are distributed in this way:

 

Letter GradeNumeric Value
A16 or higher
B11-15
C6-10
D5 or lower

 

Coaches will be able to see numerical values for Stamina and Playtime Expectations. An example recruit would look like:

 

Player LineShootingFinishingBallworkReboundingDefensePotentialStaminaPlaytime Expectations
G Fritz Chan 6-4 Fr [Virginia****]CCABCB-2712

 

Players are generated with a home state or home country. These generations are based on the actual number of recruits from the last 5 years from these states (or country).

 

Recruiting Rankings

Based on a player’s overall rating, a player is assigned a star rating. Star ratings are distributed as follows:

 

Overall RatingStar Rating
60 or higher5 (*****)
53-594 (****)
45-523 (***)
37-442 (**)
26-361 (*)

 

Any players that are generated with an overall rating of 25 or less are classified as Walk-Ons and are removed from the recruiting pool. Walk-Ons will be covered in the next section. Actual attribute ratings and a player’s overall rating are revealed once recruiting is complete.

 

A player’s star rating will impact the player’s playtime expectations and how many recruiting points it takes to sign him (covered in Part D). Playtime expectations are randomized in the following way:

 

Star RatingPlaytime Expectations (Minutes per Game)
5 (*****)10-20
4 (****)5-15
3 (***)0-10
2 (**)0-5
1 (*)0

 

Remember that if you do not meet a player’s playtime expectations, there is a chance they will enter the transfer portal. For more details on transfers, see the Transfers and Early Declarations section.

 

Each recruiting class will be accompanied with the ESPN 100. The ESPN 100 will give a ranking of the top 100 players in the class based on their overall ranking. However, since there is uncertainty in scout projections, the rankings will not be entirely accurate. The top 10 players will be randomized in spots 1-10. The next 15 players (11-25) will also be randomized within spots 11-25. From there, players will be randomized in groups of 25 (26-50, 51-75, and 76-100). This system creates randomization of exact player talent while still ensuring coaches are recruiting players of a certain caliber: a Top 10 recruit will never be ranked lower than 10. Outside of the top 100, players will be randomly listed by star rating.

 

Scholarships and Team Management

A team can have up to 13 players on their roster. Each team will also have 13 scholarships to give out. Walk-Ons do not take up a scholarship when they join your team, but they do take up a roster spot on the team. Walk-Ons will join your team if you do not fill up a full roster of 13 scholarship players during any recruiting cycle. So, if you had 10 scholarship players returning (that you had recruited during previous years) and you recruited 2 new players by offering them scholarships, then 1 Walk-On would join your team to fill the last roster spot.

 

During any given recruiting year, a coach may offer scholarships in accordance to the amount of scholarship roster spots available on their team. This means that if you have Walk-Ons on your team, you have the chance to sign extra players. However, if you sign enough recruits to where your roster would have over 13 players, you must release the Walk-On from your team. The Walk-On will enter the transfer market if they have remaining eligibility.

 

Freshman and Sophomore players can be redshirted. Redshirted players can not play any minutes during the season. Redshirted players still count as one of your 13 roster spots. If the player is not a Walk-On, a redshirted player still counts as one of your scholarship spots.

 

Recruiting Calendar

There are 10 weeks of recruiting, which occur during the regular season. Each week corresponds to 2 games played. Teams will have a certain amount of points they can spend on recruits each week (discussed in the next section).

 

After the first 3 weeks of recruiting, there will be Early Signing Day. If a recruit has had enough points spent on them and has been offered a scholarship, there is a chance they will sign with the team during this event. All players that are not signed during Early Signing Day will continue to be recruited for the next 7 weeks. Players will not start signing again until Week 8. Following Week 8, Week 9, and Week 10, players will have a chance to sign with your team. Signing players will be detailed more in Part G: Signing Players.

 

Throughout recruiting, coaches can spend their weekly points on players who are in the transfer portal. Transfers follow the same signing schedule as other recruits; transfers can sign on Early Signing Day or following Week 8, Week 9, and Week 10. After the 10th week of recruiting, there will be one extra week for transfers to give Walk-Ons who have been released from their teams to make room for new recruits a chance to sign with other teams. This final week consists only of players in the transfer portal. Players who were initially in the transfer portal but were not signed during regular recruiting will still be available to join teams during this week. Teams will have their normal amount of points to spend during this extra week, but they must have a roster spot available to sign a transfer. Walk-On players will be generated for teams without 13 players on their roster after the Final Transfer Week.

 

The Recruiting Calendar looks like this:

 

Recruiting RoundWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week4Week 5Week 6
NotesEarly Signing Day
Recruiting RoundWeek 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Final Transfer Week
NotesPlayers start signing againPlayers can signPlayers can signTransfers can sign

 

During each recruiting week, a coach can spend points and offer scholarships to players. Scholarships can be rescinded if a player has not signed with the team during any week and reoffered to a different player during that same week. A scholarship must be offered to a player for them to sign with your team.

 

Recruiting Points

Teams have a certain number of base recruiting points they can spend each week.

 

After each season, coaches will gain or lose base recruiting points depending on their performance during the previous season. A coach can gain a maximum of 100 additional base recruiting points and lose a maximum of 100 base recruiting points. Point changes are determined by your wins in the previous season and use the formula y=2x-20, where x is the number of wins. This creates the following benchmarks:

 

WinsRecruiting Points Gained/Lost
2020
1510
100
5-10
0-20

 

Only regular season wins are included in this calculation. Post-season wins give you a chance of earning bonus recruiting points. Teams are capped at a maximum of 450 base recruiting points and cannot go under 200 base recruiting points. However, teams can go over 400 weekly points by getting bonus points from achievements during the previous season. These bonuses add points for each week and are as follows:

 

AchievementBonus Points per Week
National Champion50
Final 430
Elite 825
Sweet 1620
Wooden Award Winner30
NIT Champion10

 

Bonus points are added for the furthest round you reached in the postseason tournament. (Note that I do not anticipate having enough teams for a full tournament. If there are more teams than expected, then further bonus levels would be added.)

 

A recruit’s star ranking determines how many points are needed to sign the player. A player has 5 different interest levels with a team: Uninterested, Low Interest, Medium Interest, High Interest, and Ready to Sign. Once you reach the minimum value of an interest level, the player will be reported as having that interest with your team until you reach the next level. For each interest level, different star ratings have different cutoffs:

 

UninterestedLow InterestMedium InterestHigh InterestReady to Sign
5 (*****)025050010001500
4 (****)01004007001000
3 (***)050200400600
2 (**)02575150300
1 (*)0104070100

 

Additionally, each player’s individual cutoffs are randomized to be within 10% of these base cutoff values. So, a 5-star recruit could be “Ready to Sign” at 1,350 points (10% below 1,500) or take as much as 1,650 points (10% above 1,500).

 

Transfers take half as many points as each interest level corresponding to their original star rating to sign. So, a 5-star transfer would take 750 points to reach the “Ready to Sign” interest level. Transfers must have a scholarship offer extended to them.

 

After each recruiting week, a report will be made available to all coaches showing how interested each recruit is in the schools that have spent points on that player. Coaches will also be able to see if a school has a scholarship offer extended to that player.

 

Each coach has a Google sheet for their recruiting plan. The first page gives information about the number of scholarships and weekly points they have to use this season:

 

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Coaches submit their points and scholarships on the “Recruiting Plan” sheet. Place the player line of the recruit on the left. If you want to extend a scholarship offer this week, write “Yes” under the “Scholarship Offered?” category. DUring any recruiting week, you can remove this and offer the scholarship to a different player. You cannot offer more scholarships than you have available (noted in your first sheet). Finally, fill in the amount of points for each recruit corresponding to which recruiting week it is. Do not delete the information between weeks.

 

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After each recruiting week, information about your recruits will be available on the “Recruit Status” sheet. This is where you will see what level of interest your recruits have in joining your team.

 

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State and Regional Bonuses

If a recruit is from the state where your school is, you will receive a 10% bonus on all points spent on that recruit. If the recruit is in the same region where your school is, you will receive a 5% bonus on all points spent on that recruit. Partial points are always rounded down.

 

There are 5 regions: Pacific West, Plains, Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast. The regions are illustrated in the image below. There are no state or regional bonuses for 5-star recruits or for international recruits.

 

regions.jpg.c169dfb17ff06c4772c4dac2126883cc.jpg

 

Signing Players

For a player to sign with your team, you must have reached the “Ready to Sign” interest level with the player and have a scholarship offer extended to the player. Players can only sign during certain periods on the recruiting calendar. The first chance for players to sign is during Early Signing Day following the 3rd week of recruiting. Players will not begin signing again until after Week 8. Players can sign with your team after Week 8, Week 9, and Week 10.

 

During any of the weeks where players can sign, a player will sign with you if you are the only team that has reached the “Ready to Sign” interest level and have a scholarship offer extended to the player. If another team has a scholarship offer extended but is not at the “Ready to Sign” interest level, the player will sign with your team and the scholarship offer will be returned to the other team. If another team has reached the “Ready to Sign” interest level but has not offered a scholarship, the player will sign with your team. If multiple teams have reached the “Ready to Sign” interest level and have offered scholarships, the player will have a 50/50 chance of deciding to sign during that week (must still be a week when recruits can sign). If the recruit decides to sign, a weighted roll between all eligible teams will occur. If the recruit decides to not sign during that week, they will again have a 50/50 decision chance during the next available signing week (unless a team rescinds their scholarship offer prior to that time or a team fills its entire roster). Coaches can still spend points on that recruit until they sign. If the player does not sign until the final recruiting week, the player will make a weighted roll to choose what team to sign with. All teams that have reached the “Ready to Sign” level, have a scholarship offer currently extended, and have an open roster spot will be included in the weighted roll. For example, if Team A has spent 300 points on a 1-star recruit and Team B has spent 100 points, and both teams have a scholarship offer extended and a roster spot open, Team A will have a 75% chance (300 out of the total 400 points spent on this recruit) to sign the recruit and Team B will have a 25% chance to sign the recruit.

 

Transfers and Early Declarations

If you have not met a player’s playtime expectations, there is a chance that player will enter the transfer portal after the season ends. The percent chance of the player entering the transfer portal depends on the percent of playtime expectations that you met for that player:

 

Percent of Expectations MetPercent Chance Player Enters Transfer Portal
90-99%20%
80-89%40%
70-79%60%
60-69%80%
59% or less100%

 

So, if your team played 20 games and a player had playtime expectations of 5 minutes per game, you would have to play them a total of 100 minutes to ensure they would not transfer. If you played them only 82 minutes (82% of their expectations), there is a 40% chance they will enter the transfer portal.

 

Transfers must sit out for one year. Since transfers are recruited during the recruiting cycle, this will count as their year sitting out, and they will be eligible to play during your next season. If the transfer has not been redshirted yet, they will automatically use their redshirt year during this year.

 

Players also have a chance to declare for the NBA Draft once they reach an overall rating of 60. They will declare for the NBA draft after a season ends and before their progressions occur. Their initial chances of forgoing the rest of their college years isn’t large, but increases the higher their overall rating is above 60:

 

Overall RatingPercent Chance to Declare for NBA
605%
615%
6215%
6315%
6425%
6535%
6645%
6755%
6865%
6975%
7075%
7185%
7285%
7395%
7495%
75 or higher100%

 

All players who are rated 75 or higher will declare for the NBA following the end of that season.

 

Before a season begins, there will be one week where coaches have an opportunity to sign a graduate transfer. Players who are seniors but never redshirted will have a chance to become a graduate transfer and are immediately eligible to play the next season with a new school. Coaches will spend recruiting points to try to sign graduate transfers. A coach can bid up to the amount of points they will have during any recruiting week. If a coach spends points on a graduate transfer, the amount spent will be taken from their first recruiting week. For example, if a coach will have 300 recruiting points per week in the upcoming season, they can bid up to 300 points on graduate transfers. If they spend 100 points to sign a graduate transfer, the coach will only have 200 points left to spend in the first recruiting week. They will still have the full 300 points during the rest of the weeks. There must be an available scholarship spot open on the team to sign a graduate transfer. A minimum amount of points must be spent on a graduate transfer for them to sign with your team. The minimum amount changes based on the overall rating of the player:

 

Overall RatingMinimum Points Needed
70+300
60-69200
50-59150
40-49100
30-3950
29 or less10

 

If multiple coaches have bid on a graduate transfer, a weighted roll will occur to determine what team the player will join.

 

The Future?

A further feature I am considering adding is team formations. Team formations would add bonuses and penalties to specific aspects (such as rebounding) but require you to play certain positions for a certain amount of minutes. For example, a 4-Guard formation would give bonuses to ballwork and shooting but penalize rebounding and finishing. It would require guards to play a total of 160 minutes. Please reach out to me with other suggestions!

 

Thank you, good luck, and have fun!

 

Wahoo

Edited by Wahoo
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Rules have been updated. Changes made:

 

  • Changed how recruiting points are gained/lost between seasons.

 

After each season, coaches will gain or lose base recruiting points depending on their performance during the previous season. A coach can gain a maximum of 100 additional base recruiting points and lose a maximum of 100 base recruiting points. Point changes are determined by your wins in the previous season and use the formula y=10x-100, where x is the number of wins. This creates the following benchmarks:

 

WinsRecruiting Points Gained/Lost
20100
1550
100
5-50
0-100

 

All wins are included in this calculation (regular season, conference tournament, and postseason tournaments). Teams are capped at a maximum of 500 base recruiting points and cannot go under 100 base recruiting points.

 

  • Added information about submitting recruiting plans.

 

Each coach has a Google sheet for their recruiting plan. The first page gives information about the number of scholarships and weekly points they have to use this season:

 

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Coaches submit their points and scholarships on the “Recruiting Plan” sheet. Place the player line of the recruit on the left. If you want to extend a scholarship offer this week, write “Yes” under the “Scholarship Offered?” category. DUring any recruiting week, you can remove this and offer the scholarship to a different player. You cannot offer more scholarships than you have available (noted in your first sheet). Finally, fill in the amount of points for each recruit corresponding to which recruiting week it is. Do not delete the information between weeks.

 

 

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After each recruiting week, information about your recruits will be available on the “Recruit Status” sheet. This is where you will see what level of interest your recruits have in joining your team.

 

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  • Added graduate transfers

Before a season begins, there will be one week where coaches have an opportunity to sign a graduate transfer. Players who are seniors but never redshirted will have a chance to become a graduate transfer and are immediately eligible to play the next season with a new school. Coaches will spend recruiting points to try to sign graduate transfers. A coach can bid up to the amount of points they will have during any recruiting week. If a coach spends points on a graduate transfer, the amount spent will be taken from their first recruiting week. For example, if a coach will have 300 recruiting points per week in the upcoming season, they can bid up to 300 points on graduate transfers. If they spend 100 points to sign a graduate transfer, the coach will only have 200 points left to spend in the first recruiting week. They will still have the full 300 points during the rest of the weeks. There must be an available scholarship spot open on the team to sign a graduate transfer. A minimum amount of points must be spent on a graduate transfer for them to sign with your team. The minimum amount changes based on the overall rating of the player:

 

Overall RatingMinimum Points Needed
70+300
60-69200
50-59150
40-49100
30-3950
29 or less10

 

If multiple coaches have bid on a graduate transfer, a weighted roll will occur to determine what team the player will join.

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  • 4 months later...

Rules have been updated. Changes made:

 

  • Implemented the proposed recruiting change from this year

If multiple teams have reached the “Ready to Sign” interest level and have offered scholarships, the player will have a 50/50 chance of deciding to sign during that week (must still be a week when recruits can sign). If the recruit decides to sign, a weighted roll between all eligible teams will occur. If the recruit decides to not sign during that week, they will again have a 50/50 decision chance during the next available signing week (unless a team rescinds their scholarship offer prior to that time or a team fills its entire roster).

 

  • Adjusted early declaration percentages and minimum overall value

Players also have a chance to declare for the NBA Draft once they reach an overall rating of 60. They will declare for the NBA draft after a season ends and before their progressions occur. Their initial chances of forgoing the rest of their college years isn’t large, but increases the higher their overall rating is above 60:

 

Overall RatingPercent Chance to Declare for NBA
605%
615%
6215%
6315%
6425%
6535%
6645%
6755%
6865%
6975%
7075%
7185%
7285%
7395%
7495%
75 or higher100%
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